Israel’s War on Hezbollah and the fall of the Iranian clerics

As an Iranian and a Muslim, I feel it is important to begin with this statement to ensure there are no misunderstandings about where my loyalties lie. The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East has shifting alliances, religious divisions, and political intrigue. Among the most significant forces in this region has been Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militia and political organisation, staunchly backed by Iran’s radical clerical regime. For decades, Hezbollah has acted as a proxy for Iran’s ambitions, driving regional conflicts with its hard-line Islamist ideology. Yet, recent developments suggest that this era of dominance may be drawing to a close.

Israel’s War on Hezbollah and the fall of the Iranian clerics
HIH Crown Prince Reza

A confluence of regional realignments, economic strain, internal dissent, and shifting global dynamics raises a crucial question: could we be witnessing the decline of both Hezbollah’s power and the influence of Iran’s radical clerics?

One of the most significant factors signalling a potential decline is the shift in regional alliances. The Middle East has seen remarkable diplomatic changes in recent years, with the thawing of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran being a pivotal moment. Long-time adversaries, their rapprochement in 2023, facilitated by China, reflects a possible realignment of power in the region, driven more by economic stability than sectarian conflict.

This warming of relations could lessen Hezbollah’s strategic importance to Iran. For decades, Hezbollah has been Iran’s primary conduit for projecting power into Lebanon and Syria, positioning itself as a defender of Shiite interests and a leader of resistance against Israel. However, as major Sunni Arab powers shift towards de-escalation and economic cooperation, Hezbollah’s militant posture may lose its value in this new landscape. Saudi Arabia, which has fiercely opposed Iranian influence through Hezbollah, is now prioritising economic development and regional stability over proxy wars, potentially depriving Hezbollah of its raison d’être.

In addition, the Abraham Accords, normalising relations between Israel and several Arab states, have added a new dimension to regional diplomacy. Hezbollah’s traditional narrative of “resistance” against Israel may become increasingly obsolete as more Arab nations forge partnerships with the Jewish state. The once unassailable image of Hezbollah as the defender of the Palestinian cause could wane, especially if the costs of conflict continue to devastate Lebanon.

Israel’s War on Hezbollah and the fall of the Iranian clerics
a demosntrator in Teheran holdin the photo of Mahsa Amini

Hezbollah’s stronghold in Lebanon has never been more fragile. The country’s catastrophic economic collapse, where the Lebanese pound has lost over 90% of its value, has driven millions into poverty and left the government paralysed. Once seen as a “state within a state,” Hezbollah’s social welfare programmes, long a source of its grassroots support, are buckling under the pressure of the broader economic crisis.

Iran’s financial lifeline to Hezbollah has also been severely strained. Years of economic sanctions and Tehran’s own economic struggles have drastically reduced the funding that Hezbollah has historically relied on. Additionally, Lebanon’s people, including many from the Shiite community that Hezbollah claims to represent, are growing disillusioned. Massive protests against the country’s political elite since 2019 have shown that the Lebanese population is no longer willing to tolerate the entrenched corruption and mismanagement that have dragged their nation into ruin. Hezbollah, once viewed as a resistance movement, is now widely seen as complicit in Lebanon’s decay, a faction propping up a dysfunctional status quo.

Iran’s radical clerical regime, Hezbollah’s ultimate patron, is also facing unprecedented internal and external challenges. The population under 35 years old, which constitutes 70% of the entire population of our country, are mostly fed up with the tyrannical clerics. The protests that erupted following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022 marked a watershed moment in our country’s resistance to theocratic rule. Led by women and by us, the younger generation, these demonstrations reflect a deep-seated desire for change, and their persistence is a signal that the clerics’ control is not as unshakeable as it once was. Calls for an end to the Islamic Republic, once unthinkable, are now being voiced openly in the streets of Tehran and other cities of our beloved country.

Economic decline has fuelled much of this unrest. Sanctions, corruption, and military expenditures, especially due to foreign interventions like support for Hezbollah and involvement in Syria, have pushed the Iranian population to breaking point. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains a powerful force, but even they cannot quell dissent indefinitely if the economic situation continues to deteriorate and the regime continues to direct resources towards foreign conflicts at the expense of domestic stability.

Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian Civil War significantly eroded its prestige, but its ongoing conflict with Israel may prove even more costly. Israel’s recent military operations targeting Hezbollah, including the assassination of key figures such as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and high-ranking Iranian officials, have heightened tensions. In retaliation, Iran launched its largest missile strike against Israel in October marking a dangerous escalation. Although partially intercepted, these strikes have raised concerns that an all-out regional war could ensue.

Israel’s War on Hezbollah and the fall of the Iranian clerics
A cartoon shows how Iran is is in control. of its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah

As Hezbollah fights on multiple fronts, both domestically and against Israel, the strain on its resources and leadership has become glaring. Iran’s increasing involvement in the conflict may only exacerbate internal unrest, further challenging the clerical regime’s grip on power.

Amid the turmoil, many of us Iranians are calling for a return to a constitutional monarchy, with Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah, as a unifying figure. The Crown Prince has been an outspoken advocate for a secular, democratic Iran, and in exile, he represents an alternative to clerical rule. While the IRGC remains a formidable obstacle, the mounting discontent in Iran offers a glimmer of hope for those of us that believe the return of a constitutional monarchy could offer the stability and reform that our country desperately needs.  The return of the Shah would also bring much needed peace and stability to the Middle East.

This new conflict with its terrible consequences of deaths, loss and destruction could very well mean that the days of Hezbollah’s dominance and Iran’s clerical regime may indeed be numbered. Economic hardship, regional realignments, and a groundswell of internal dissent are pushing both entities towards the brink. If Hezbollah continues to lose its grip on Lebanon and the Iranian regime is further destabilised by its foreign entanglements and domestic challenges, the Middle East could undergo a seismic transformation. In the face of such possibilities, the future of the region—and the fate of Hezbollah and Iran’s radical clerics remains uncertain, but change is undeniably on the horizon.

Terrorist groups like Hezbollah or Hamas fundamentally betray the true essence of the Holy Quran, which advocates peace, justice, and mercy. The Quran holds the sanctity of human life as paramount, declaring that taking an innocent life is as grievous as killing all of humanity (Quran 5:32). It calls for compassion, fairness, and the peaceful resolution of disputes, rather than violence and conflict.

Israel’s War on Hezbollah and the fall of the Iranian clerics

Hezbollah’s and Hamas continuous use of terror tactics, targeting of civilians, and incitement of sectarian hatred run counter to these core Islamic values. While they may claim to act in defence of Islam, their actions distort the faith’s teachings, replacing its message of unity and peace with destruction and fear. In truth, their political aims and violent methods are a grave departure from the principles of Islam, which urges justice and harmony, not terror and division.

May the Shah return soon!

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